Saturday, February 4, 2012

FAST AND LOOSE WITH STATS

Statistics are funny things. You can more or less use them to prove what you want to prove.

Example: I can prove that cancer is caused by oxygen. In a study by me I found that 100% of those deprived of oxygen for more than 20 minutes did not die of cancer.

The cure for cancer is simple, too.

Simply place a plastic bag over the patient's head, tie it securely around his neck and he will not die of cancer.

That's the kind of magic the administration of President BO (the child president) uses to prove what it wants you to believe.

The latest "statistics" show unemployment at 8.3%.

PROGRESS!

Well, not really.

A much larger number of people last month simply quit looking for jobs than the month before, therefore the base on which the statistics were based shrank. Those people were simply thrown out of the data.

In his SOU speech, President BO (the child president) said, "We are starting to see some signs that the economy is picking up. We’ve created 22 million jobs over the last — er, three million jobs over the last 22 months."



Turns out, we  haven’t created 3 million net jobs over the last 22 months.

Writing for Hot Air, Ed Morrissey observed:

Twenty-two months ago, employment was at 129,438,000, according to the BLS, and in December (the last month for which we have data until about 8:30 am today), the number stood at 131,900,000. The difference between the two is 2.462 million, not 3 million, and it won’t be unless we created 538,000 net jobs in January … which seems unlikely.



But why 22 months? Obama began his term in January 2009, and the recession ended in June 2009. What’s so special about March 2010? Well, not so surprisingly, that’s almost the nadir of employment during Obama’s presidency, which actually took place in February 2010, two years ago this month. Even if he’d picked the right month, it would still only have been 2.654 million, not 3 million.


Calculating from the end of the recession, the net job creation from those 31 months is only 1.407 million, a wan 45,390 net jobs a month, far below the pace needed to keep up with population growth. Calculating for the entirety of his presidency, we’re actually in the hole 937,000 jobs. Obama tried to cherry-pick the worst month in order to claim the most credit he could possible for job growth, and managed to get both the month and the math wrong anyway.

The point is, this administration plays fast and loose with statistics, bending and twisting them in a way that would make those little tube guys in front of stores envious.

Your president is either ignorant of the proper use of statistics or he is deliberately misusing them to mislead you into thinking things are improving in the economy more than they are. It has to be one or the other, as there are no other options.

30 comments:

Aquarians Love To Cuddle said...

"....In a study by me I found that 100% of those deprived of oxygen for more than 20 minutes did not die of cancer....."

Did you have a 'Control Group'?
Was it a 'Double-blind Trial'?
Was an attempt made to eliminate subjective bias on the part of both experimental subjects(Liberals) and the experimenters(Conservatives)? In most cases, double-blind experiments are believed to achieve a higher standard of scientific rigor.

Aquarians Love To Cuddle said...

And scientific rigour too!

Joe said...

ALTC: "Was it a 'Double-blind Trial'?"

I stuck a pencil into both eyes of two of the people over whose heads I placed the plastic bags. Does that count as a double blind study?

Aquarians Love To Cuddle said...

Yes.
If you used a standard, hexagonal, "#2 pencil".

Penetration of the pencil lead into the body commonly leads to severe and debilitating effects such as fever, anaemia, elevated white cell count, gastro-intestinal upset, kidney and liver damage, anorexia, necrosis of the tissue surrounding the wound and sometimes blindness. Though 'none are so blind (already) as Liberals who will not see'.
But NOT cancer! Your thesis is still valid.

sue hanes said...

Joe - This is good stuff here.

I totally agree with you that President Obama has been a little lax on creating Jobs in Our Country.

And furthermore I believe that Newt Gingrich's idea of building a colony on the moon would create a lot of Jobs for folks who want to 'get away' for an extended period of time.

And I know just the person we could send to be in charge of this colony - Rick Santorun.





mabye General McCrystal would go too since he got canned - that is if he's not in a serious relationship.

My Blog said...

For people (especially republican's) who do not understand about what a Natural Born Citizen is.

I just wonder how is Gov. Mitt Romney, whose father is not a born American and his mother is not an “American,” qualified to run for “president”? Just explain this for me!

Ducky's here said...

Joe, politicians have been bandying about the unemployment number an the jobs created number for some time. They are often deceptive.

Better to use the workforce participation percentage. It's readily available at the Labor Dept. site.

If you aren't aware of it you should be listening, not talking.

Remember, unlike Bill Witless, the left is here to help you become better informed.

Craig said...

Joe, I agree with you about statistics. There are liars, damn liars and statistics.

The latest "statistics" show unemployment at 8.3%.

Scare quotes? We all know (well, most of us) how the UE figures are calculated and that the U6 is a more accurate account of the jobs situation. 8.3% is based on the Current Population Survey which every president has been judged on since 1940.

But why 22 months?

Because it's been 22 months of uninterrupted job growth. The same way the Bushies always crowed about 52 months of uninterrupted job growth. All administrations put the best spin on the numbers. It's not unique to Obama. I take Morrissey's (loved him with the "Smiths") point about net jobs. How many times have you heard that Reagan created 20M jobs? The net was 16M in his 8 years. BTW, that puts him in fourth place among the last 12 presidents that have served at least one full term.

On average per year Clinton- 2.9M, Carter- 2.6M, LBJ-2.3M, Reagan-2M. Notice anything about the 3 ahead of RR? G.W. Bush- a whopping 375,000. That's per year. More tax cuts, baby.

The difference between the two is 2.462 million, not 3 million, and it won’t be unless we created 538,000 net jobs in January … which seems unlikely.

It was 243,000, so I'll give Ed the benefit of the doubt and say, Obama should have said 2.7M. I haven't been happy with Obama in the way he has handled the UE crises. He caved to Repubs demagoguery on the debt and deficit (they clearly don't care). The Dems have been blocked by a record, almost double, number of filibusters and Obama did inherit the worst recession since the big one.

Yes, I still blame Bush and the Repubs for trashing the economy. I still blame David Berkowitz for the Son of Sam murders, even though it was a long time ago. They're both guilty of doing what they did.

Joe, the economy still sucks and Obama acknowledges that. There's always the caveat, we have a long way to go. 243,000 jobs in Jan. is pretty good news. It's a pity you hate Obama more than you love the country.

Aquarians Love To Cuddle said...

Coruscating Craig said,

"....Yes, I still blame Bush and the Repubs for trashing the economy. I still blame David Berkowitz for the Son of Sam murders, even though it was a long time ago. They're both guilty of doing what they did....."

I do not see how the march of time would change the concept of blame. If they are both guilty of doing what they did then, then the passage of time will not affect their guilt. Therefore, the passage of time will not affect the amount of 'blame' apportioned to them.

Besides, their respective neighbour's dogs are really to blame.

The legislation to repeal the Glass–Steagall Act was signed into law by President Bill Clinton on November 12, 1999 - that started the mess.
President Clinton knew that poor President George W. Bush would reap the 'rewards' for that!(President Clinton knew Mr. Gore would fail.) Just like President George W. Bush when he 'upped' the price of oil to $150 a barrel in the summer of 2008 hastening, and deepening, the collapse for which he hoped the next President would 'own'(He knew it would be a Democrat.).

Aquarians Love To Cuddle said...

President Clinton 'knew' President George W. Bush would be the Republican candidate for the 2000 Election even back in November 1999.

How?
President Clinton is tough like Chuck Norris! Both can divide by zero!

Yes, they are that tough!

And President Clinton can draw triangles the internal angles of which add to greater than 180 degrees! And NOT on the surface of a sphere either!

Then again, President George W. Bush knows what the word 'nucular' means. Many just figured it was a metathetic mispronounciation of the word 'nuclear', but no, he meant to say 'nucular' and pronounced it correctly.

You'll need access to the two-volume Shorter Oxford English Dictionary to research 'nucular'. It ain't on the Internet - yet.

It is worth the effort. You'll gain a new appreciation for President George W. Bush's sense of humour.
It has something to do with the female reproductive parts of certain plants.

Aquarians Love To Cuddle said...

ermmmm.....
ahhhhh......

Make that 'mispronunciation'

mispronounce(v) turns into mispronunciation(n)?

I hate English!
The rules are just dumb!

Craig said...

I do not see how the march of time would change the concept of blame.

Exactly. Surely you know, being a Conservative, that there is a statute of limitations on Republican malfeasance. 2-3 months.

The legislation to repeal the Glass–Steagall Act was signed into law by President Bill Clinton

I don't let Clinton off the hook. I blame him for NAFTA, WTO and BJ as well. I blamed Bush and Repubs because it was Phil Gramm who pushed for repeal of G-S and the Commodities Futures Modernization Act (signed by Bush). I guess I should add the DLC to my list of the guilty.

Aquarians Love To Cuddle said...

I hate acronyms and initialisms.

"....Surely you know, being a Conservative, that there is a statute of limitations on Republican malfeasance. 2-3 months....."

That long?
Barbarians!
Surely you know, being a Yankee Librul, that I consider every last American to be an exsanguinating myogenic muscular organ Liberal and by calling me a Conservative you have no conception of how conservative I really am. I mean, sheesh! You folks have democracy! How Liberal is that?

Your most conservative Conservative would be the first against the wall if he or she were to ever come to my homeland. The crime?
Abject Liberalism in the First Degree.

Joe said...

ALTC: "I hate English!
The rules are just dumb!"

But it's so much fun!

Think of "ough."

rough
through
though
thought
betrough
borough
bough
plough
brough
bough
dough
enough
borough
furlough
hiccough
slough
thorough
through
tough

Just to name a few.

Joe said...

Craig: Just knowing that you agree with me about something, anything, just warms what's left of the atria of my heart.

Craig said...

Craig: Just knowing that you agree with me about something, anything, just warms what's left of the atria of my heart.

Joe, I'm all about building bridges. It's encouraging to hear you have a heart. Now I can get to work thawing out the other three quarters.

Craig said...

I hate acronyms and initialisms.

Go ahead, make fun of me. I'm used to it, I'm an AOS survivor.

exsanguinating myogenic muscular organ Liberal

Grandiloquent pedantry is boring. I'm not sure I want to cuddle anymore.

first against the wall

Strike my last comment. This might be interesting.

Ducky's here said...

I mean, sheesh! You folks have democracy! How Liberal is that?

------------

Huh?

Democracy is incompatible with state capitalism.

Joe said...

Ducky: We don't have a democracy.

We have a Constitutional Republic, also known as a Representative Republic.

Ducky's here said...

In the vernacular "democracy" is used to mean an elected government.

The fringe right can be annoying when they go on their Federalism lecture.

Joe said...

Ducky: "The fringe right can be annoying..."

Goodse/gander

So can the left.

Aquarians Love To Cuddle said...

Coruscating Craig said,

".....Grandiloquent pedantry is boring. I'm not sure I want to cuddle anymore....."

Sniff....sob....

There you go! Now I've a compond fracture of the endocardial zones of Eros.
Happy now?

And 'cuddle' is a euphemism, though I suspect you would be averse to engage in that for which it stands as well. Unless, of course, it's against the wall.

"Hey! Teacher! Leave them kids alone! All in all it's just a...."

Aquarians Love To Cuddle said...

Joe,

I recall that wonderful 'ough' pronunciation conundrum from a few years back.
That is why I like to spell 'fish'

'ghoti'

'gh' as in 'tough'
'o' as in 'women'
and
'ti' as in 'action'

I think George Bernard Shaw invented this.


Coruscating Craig,

Yankee Libruls have a four-chambered heart that includes the right and left atria and the right and left ventricles.

Joe has revealed that his atria are warmed - two of his four chambers. That leaves one half of his chambers un-warmed, not three-quarters.

Craig said...

And 'cuddle' is a euphemism

I know what Aquarians love to do. What's your sign?

Unless, of course, it's against the wall.

Any flat surface will do. Vertical, horizontal or askew.

"Hey! Teacher! Leave them kids alone! All in all it's just a...."

A poor little schoolboy who said "we don't need no lessons"?

Joe has revealed that his atria are warmed - two of his four chambers.

My bad. I read...

what's left of the atria

...as left atria. Mea culpa.

Aquarians Love To Cuddle said...

".....I know what Aquarians love to do. What's your sign?....."

Exit.

".....A poor little schoolboy who said "we don't need no lessons"?....."

Meh! The sun will struggle up, the world will still keep turning.
We'll have to work in Oliver's Army some time - I like that one.

"......My bad. I read...
what's left of the atria
...as left atria. Mea culpa......"

I figured as much, but I'm not one to pass on an opportunity to deride my fellow man. A character flaw I reckon.

Craig said...

Exit.

*Sigh* We'll always have Rangoon.

Aquarians Love To Cuddle said...

Ah yes, the halcyon days of our youth when you were "Strong like bull. Smart like trolley-car". And I always depended on the kindness of strangers - as you know.

Oh and it's called 'Yangon' now you ignorant Yankee heathen!

Aquarians Love To Cuddle said...

Coruscating Craig,

I give up!
I can't figure out what AOS represents, much less what being a survivor of it would entail.
Please to tell me?

My English tutor informs me that NAFTA has 'bin berry berry good' for Canada. And it would be even better if the damn Yankees would follow their own rules and take more of Canada's soft-wood lumber, Alberta beef and our elderly snowbirds in the winter.

Though poor Joe will have to tolerate the hoards of geriatric Canucks crowding the 'All-You-Can-Eat' buffets at 4:00 o'clock everyday.
If you want to get rid of the Canucks from a restaurant Joe, just yell "Heh! They're selling poutine for a buck a kilo over at the Walmart deli counter, eh!"
The place will clear out so you and the Mrs. can have a quiet dinner.

Craig said...

I can't figure out what AOS represents

Acronym Overload Syndrome.

Aquarians Love To Cuddle said...

Nyuck!

Beats DSB - 'Deadly Sperm Buildup'
A potentially lethal condition previous lovers, who will remain unnamed and unloved, would use to appeal to my sympathetic nature and get the ride off me.

And no, it didn't work.